The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job numbers seemed to surpass expectations for September with a gain of some 254,000 new positions. (While the number is well above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics -- some have pointed out the surge of undocumented immigrants has swelled the job force). However the picture was less robust in the construction job markets, where the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent for September, somewhat in line with the changing season. [As a result, the new unemployment figure is up 0.5 basis points vs. August ‘24; and nearly the same when compared to last September’s level of 3.8%]. Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+25,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000); nonresidential specialty trade contractors lead the way by adding 17,000 jobs.
The general unemployment level, slipped 0.1 basis point to 4.1 percent. (“Unemployed persons” dipped 0.3 to 6.8 million per the government count). Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” stayed at 62.7 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” increased slightly by 0.2 basis points to 60.2 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ]. Average hourly earnings increased another 0.3% to $30.33 for private sector production and non-supervisory employees. SEE Workforce Statistics Chart
