The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has issued its latest report: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The slowdown in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. While on the other hand “imports,” which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.  The new quarterly data seems to be in line with other economic trends that appear to be signaling a more sluggish economy overall.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job numbers seemed to surpass expectations for September with a gain of some 254,000 new positions. (While the number is well above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics -- some have pointed out the surge of undocumented immigrants has swelled the job force).  However the picture was less robust in the construction job markets, where the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent for September, somewhat in line with the changing season. [As a result, the new unemployment figure is up 0.5 basis points vs. August ‘24; and nearly the same when compared to last September’s level of 3.8%]. Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+25,000), similar to the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000); nonresidential specialty trade contractors lead the way by adding 17,000 jobs.

Latest jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for August disappoints again with only 142,000 new positions. (Falling only inside the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  However the picture was more robust in the construction job markets, where the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slide to 3.2 percent for August. [The new unemployment figure is down 0.7 basis points vs. July ‘24; and a similar 0.7 compared to last August’s level of 3.9%].  Construction employment rose by 34,000 in August, higher than the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. During the month, heavy and civil engineering construction added 14,000 jobs, and employment in nonresidential specialty trade contractors continued to trend up by (+14,000).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest jobs report for July shows signs of a slowing jobs market with only 114,000 new positions. (Below the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  In construction job markets, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent for July. [The new unemployment figure is up 0.6 basis points vs. June ‘24; but is equal to or consistent with last July’s level of 3.9%].  Overall, employment continued to trend up in construction in July (+25,000), in line with the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+19,000); with specialty trade contractors continuing its upward trend in July (+19,000). 
 
The general unemployment level, increased another 0.2 basis points to 4.3 percent. (“Unemployed persons” jumped up to 7.2 million per the government count).  Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” rose to 62.7 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL).  The “employment to population ratio” remained slipped to 60.0 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings continued to increase staying over the thirty dollar mark, at $30.14 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

June’s BLS jobs report was mixed with a moderate 206,000 new positions. (Above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  However, for construction, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to only 3.3 percent for June, consistent with heightened seasonal workloads. [The new unemployment figure is down 0.6 basis points vs. May ‘24; but is smaller 0.3 basis points from last June’s level of 3.6%].  Construction added 27,000 jobs in June, higher than the average monthly gain of 20,000 over the prior 12 months.

The general unemployment level, increased another 0.1 basis points to 4.1 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was also up to 6.8 million per the government count).  Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” rose to 62.6 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” remained at 60.1 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their preCovid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings continued to increase breaking the thirty dollar mark, at $30.05 for private sector production and non-supervisory employees.  SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

BLS’s May report moved more briskly increasing by 272,000 new positions. (Well above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  As for construction, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to only 3.9 percent for May, consistent with strong seasonal workloads. [The new unemployment figure is down 1.3 basis points vs. April ‘24; but is worse some 0.4 basis points from last May’s level of 3.5%].  Overall, construction saw little change from the April numbers.
 
The general unemployment level, increased another 0.1 basis points crossing over to 4.0 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was also up to 6.6 million per the government count).  Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” fell to 62.5 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL).  The “employment to population ratio” fell another 0.1 basis points to 60.1 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings continued to increase to $29.99 for private sector production and non-supervisory employees.     SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

April’s report by BLS showed a more modest increase of 175,000 new positions. (Slightly above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  As for construction, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.2 percent for April, consistent with the seasonal work flow. [The new unemployment figure is down 0.2 basis points vs. March ‘24; but is worse by a large 1.1 basis points from last April’s level of only 4.1%].  Construction employment changed little in April (+9,000), following an increase of 40,000 in March. Over the prior 12 months, construction had added an average of 22,000 jobs per month.
 
The general unemployment level, increased by 0.1 basis points back to 3.9 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was up slightly to 6.5 million per the government count).  Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” stayed the same at 62.7 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). However, the “employment to population ratio” fell 0.1 basis points to 60.2 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be around 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings continued to increase after a solid 2023, and now stands at $29.85 for private sector production and non-supervisory employees.  

SEE Construction Workforce Statistics Chart

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has reported that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of only 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased at a much more encouraging pace of 3.4 percent. The small growth in the first quarter primarily reflected modest increases in consumer spending and housing investment, which were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased as well.

BLS’s March report continued job increases with 303,000 new positions. (Well above the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics).  As for construction, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped  to 5.4 percent for March, consistent with the beginning of seasonal work. [The new unemployment figure is down 1.6 basis points vs. February ‘24; and is 0.2 basis points better than last February’s level].  Overall, construction added 39,000 jobs in March, about double the average monthly gain of 19,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in nonresidential specialty trade contractors (+16,000).
 
The general unemployment level, dropped 0.1 basis points to 3.8 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was also down to 6.4 million per the government count).  Meanwhile, the “labor force participation rate” rose to 62.7 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL).  The “employment to population ratio” also gained 0.2 basis points to 60.3 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their preCovid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings continued to increase after a solid 2023, and now stands at $29.79 for private sector production and non-supervisory employees.     SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the nation’s inflation rate rose to 3.2% for the year ending in February. The news on the consumer price index (CPI), could delay the Federal Reserve’s decision to reverse course and start the process of gradual cuts to interest rates – pushing back such plans a few months at best. During the past two years, the Fed has worked to drive down inflation through a series of rapid/aggressive hikes to interest rates. The stubborn upward movement in inflation reported for February ‘24 has not only stymie hopes of interest rate cuts, but also may complicate the ability to orchestrate a “soft landing” where the high rates don’t damage economic activity. [NOTE: On a month-to-month basis, CPI inflation rose by 0.4%, which was in line with projections; while “core inflation,” a measure that excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, fell a tenth of a percentage point to a yearly basis of 3.8% ending in February].