Signaling a possible slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job numbers collapsed for October with a tiny gain of only 12,000 newpositions – 100,000 below what was expected. (The number is dramatically below the 130-150,000 range estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics. Even if the hurricanes and strikes are taken into account – the job creation number would still be extremely low).  The overall jobs creation picture becomes even more troubling given BLS has revised down by 81,000 from +159,000 to +78,000 its August figures, and also revised down by 31,000 from +254,000 to +223,000 the rosy September number. With these revisions, new employment positions for August and September combined have been adjusted down by 112,000 from what was previously reported.

With respect to the construction job market, the picture is also deteriorating reflected by the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rising to 4.2 percent for October, which is higher than the 2023 levels. [The new unemployment figure is up 0.5 (half of a percent) higher vs. September ‘24; and up 0.2 when compared to last October’s level of 4.0%]. On the other hand, employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months (which was not matched in October). One of the bright spots during the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.For the U.S., the unemployment level stayed at 4.1 percent. (although “Unemployed persons” rose 0.2 to 7.0 million per the government count).  This can be explained by the “labor force participation rate” dropping to 62.6 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL).  The “employment to population ratio” slipped 0.2 basis points to 60.0 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet; if people were actually seeking jobs, the unemployment rate would be approximately 5.0% ].  Average hourly earnings increased another 0.4% to $30.48 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.  SEE WORKFORCE STATISTICS CHART