November job numbers increased some 263,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (Well above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment was 3.9 percent in November, consistent with seasonal work trends. [The new figure is up 0. basis points vs. Oct. ‘22 level; while being down by 1.8 points from last November 2021]. Construction employment continued to trend up in November (+20,000), with nonresidential building adding 8,000 jobs. Construction has added an average of 19,000 jobs per month thus far this year, little different from the 2021 average of 16,000 per month.     

The general unemployment remained at 3.7 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was reported at 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” was continued its slide over the last three months to 62.1 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced little changed at 59.9 percent. [Both measures haven’t reached their pre-Covid levels yet]. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $28.10 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (see, Table), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Most of the positive private sector growth occurred in the transportation sector, buoyed by summer vacation travel and some normalcy after being hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic and lingering shutdowns.  The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 30, 2022.

August job numbers tapered off increasing some 315,000 new positions down over 200K from July, according the latest Labor Department figures. (This is still above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment went up to 3.9 percent in August, consistent with seasonal work trends. [The new figure is up 0.4 basis points vs. July ‘22 level; while being down by 0.7 points from last August 2021]. Employment in construction began to wane, down by 60,000 in August from last month’s numbers.    

The general unemployment increased 0.2 to 3.7 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was up 0.3 to 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” rose three tenths to 62.4 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced a slight increase of 0.1 to 60.1 percent. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.68 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart for details.

July job numbers continued their upward trend with a sizable move of 528,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (This is more than 3.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.5 percent in July, consistent seasonal work while matching the general unemployment percentage. [The new figure is down 0.2 basis points vs. June ‘22 level; while being down by 2.6 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 6.1% figure of last July 2021]. Employment in construction increased by 32,000 in July, as specialty trade contractors added 22,000 jobs. Construction overall employment is now 82,000 higher than in February 2020.   

The general unemployment slipped to 3.5 percent. (“Unemployed persons” was 5.7 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” slipped one tenth to 62.1 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced a slight increase of 0.1 to 60.0 percent. Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.57 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE the Workforce Statistics Chart 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller reduction in federal government spending.  However, recessions are technically defined by two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth and are characterized by high unemployment, low or negative GDP growth, falling income and slowing retail sales, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which tracks the numbers.

Job numbers in June continued their upward trend with sizable move of 372,000 new positions according the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.7 percent in June, consistent seasonal work and nearly matching the general unemployment percentage. [The new figure is down 0.1 basis points vs. April ‘22 level; while being down by 3.8 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 7.5% figure of last June+ 2021]. Overall, employment in construction had little change from May’s figures.  

The general unemployment remained at 3.6 percent for the fourth month in a row. (“Unemployed persons” was 5.9 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” slipped one tenth to 62.2 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight drop down 0.2 to 59.1 percent.  Both are early signs of a potential cooling of the employment levels.  Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.45 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.

Workforce Statistics Chart

Job numbers in May continued their growth with another sizable move of 390,000 new positions according to the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.0x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 3.8 percent in May, consistent with improving seasonal weather trends. [The new figure is down 0.6 basis points vs. April ‘22 level; while being down by 2.9 points from the pandemic/shutdown impacted 6.7% figure of last May 2021]. Employment in construction increased by 36,000 in May, following no change in April. In May, job gains occurred in specialty trade contractors (+17,000) and heavy and civil engineering construction (+11,000). Overall, construction employment is 40,000 higher than in February 2020. 

The general unemployment figure remained at 3.6 percent for the third month in a row. (“Unemployed persons” was 6.0 million per the government count). The “labor force participation rate” increased one tenth to 62.3 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight increased up 0.1 to 60.1 percent.  Average hourly earnings continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.33 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.  In April, 7.4 percent of employed persons worked remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic/shutdowns, off only 0.3 percent from April.   

SEE the Workforce Statistics Chart

Job numbers in April maintained the pace of growth with another sizable move nearly identical to March, at 428,000 new positions according the latest Labor Department figures. (Again, this is more than 2.5x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment dropped to 4.6 percent in April, consistent with improving seasonal weather trends. [The new figure is down 1.4 basis points vs. March ‘22 level; while being down by 3.1 points from the  pandemic/shutdown impacted 7.7% figure of last April 2021].  Overall, employment in construction is consist with normal seasonal upward job trends in April.  

The overall unemployment figure remained at 3.6 percent. (“Unemployed persons” also slipped to 5.9 million per the government count).  The “labor force participation rate” decreased to 62.2 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced also experienced a slight decreased down 0.1 to 60.0 percent.  Average hourly earnings have continued their long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.12 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees.  In April, 7.7 percent of employed persons worked remotely because of the coronavirus pandemic/shutdowns, off from 10.0 percent in March. 

SEE Workforce Statistics  Chart

According to the latest U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2022.  This is a dramatic reversal following an increase of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the first quarter, a number of factors appear to have impacted the markets including, but limited to: there was a resurgence of COVID-19 cases from the Omicron variant and decreases in government pandemic assistance payments. Moreover, the quarter experienced some turbulence from supply chain delays and disruptions, which were further exacerbated by the widening conflict in Ukraine. This troubling decline in the midst of inflationary pressures has raised the specter of “stagflation” not seen since the Carter failed presidency.

Job numbers in March maintained pace with another sizable 431,000 new positions according the latest Labor Department figures. (This is more than 2.5x above the 130-150,000 estimated increase needed on a monthly basis to stay-up with growing demographics). The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment remained dipped to 6.0 percent in March, in consistent with improving seasonal weather trends. [The new figure is down 0.7 basis points vs. February ‘22 level; while being down by 2.6 points from the pandemic/shutdown induced 8.6% figure of last March 2021].  Employment in construction continued to trend up in March (+19,000) and has finally returned to its February 2020 level.  

The overall unemployment figure fell to 3.6 percent. (“Unemployed persons” also slipped to 6.0 million per the government count).  The “labor force participation rate” increased to 62.4 percent. [NOTE: The “labor force participation” rate “typically” works inversely to the overall unemployment figures. Meaning: as it deteriorates/gets worse or smaller, it actually is counted as improving unemployment (i.e., people leaving the workforce are no longer counted as unemployed by the DOL). The “employment to population ratio” experienced another upward movement of 0.2 to 60.1 percent.  Average hourly earnings level has continued its long steady incremental climb, now standing at $27.06 for private sector production and nonsupervisory employees. 

SEE Workforce Statistics Chart