With President Biden having just signed the $1.9 Trillion COVID-Emergency or Stimulus package, reports are surfacing of plans to rapidly move on to an even larger spending package.  Competing versions of a potential new bill, a so-called “Infrastructure-Green New Deal Bill” has the House Democrats working on a $1.486 trillion version vs. the Biden Administration’s more ambitious albeit less detailed $2.106 trillion as tracked by the Cornerstone Macro group.  The investment advisory firm complied a chart of known elements or figures that are circulating in DC as talking points or markers that could form the basis of an expected legislative vehicle to be submitted soon to Congressional committees of jurisdiction.

Taken from various sources, the table below provides a potential scenario of the elements and spending levels of a possible “Infrastructure/Green” bill.  The analysis includes not just the usual highway and transit spending, but massive “green energy” outlays, federally funded universal nursery school (both in the House Dem and Biden wish list at about $130-138 Bn), along with other semi-related or even tangentially related items costed out mostly in the House Dems targets and (H.R.2).  Meanwhile, the Senate version (S.2302) seems very modest or tame in comparison, sticking more closely to what might be called “traditional” infrastructure items or expenditures that amount to only $291 Bn.  [See, Cornerstone Macro’s chart below].

[NOTE: Other issues like a multi-year extension of the brand new cash-welfare program created in the stimulus, tax hikes, — and maybe even that $15 minimum wage could end-up in a final version as well].